PAKISTAN is becoming increasingly marginalised in international affairs. It is no longer able to shape the strategic environment in its neighbourhood to advance its interests, much less influence global geopolitics.
The country has faced reversals on a number of fronts, notably Kashmir and Afghanistan. Once an active diplomatic player in the Middle East, today its principal engagement with the region is to seek loans from rich Arab countries. Even the country’s most critical bilateral relationship — with China — is facing challenges. Its international relevance has been progressively declining and its diplomatic options shrinking.
A combination of factors is responsible for this situation. Pakistan’s economic weakness, political instability, unceasing turmoil, poor governance, continuing internal security threats and strategic confusion. The key question raised by this is why the country was strategically ‘relevant’ in the past when some of these characteristics were also present.
The answer is that factors or developments extraneous to Pakistan gave it a significant role and importance in global geopolitics. For over two decades after its independence, it was the Cold War that catapulted Pakistan into the position of a much sought-after ally by the US-led West in its fight against communism. Membership of Western-sponsored military alliances enabled it to benefit from significant economic and military assistance.
In the 1980s, it was the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan that propelled Pakistan in a ‘front-line’ role in the international coalition’s campaign to roll back Russian occupation. The defeat and disintegration of the Soviet Union was followed by a period in which Pakistan’s geostrategic importance declined precipitously. 9/11 dramatically changed that. Pakistan once again assumed a front-line role in the so-called War on Terror. This enabled the country to coast along for two decades in a globally prominent role as a result of the US and Nato countries’ need for Pakistan’s cooperation in the war in Afghanistan.
The structural changes and dispersal of power in the international system — the currency of power having changed — has created an enabling environment for middle power diplomatic activism and for them to wield greater influence and become global players. Middle powers play off the US-China competition to strengthen their bargaining
Pakistan doesn’t figure today among middle powers that include many countries of the Global South, such as Turkiye, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Singapore among several others. But it has all the potential to become one.
To be internationally relevant, it must first and foremost build a strong and resilient economy that is not reliant on external life support, on bailouts and borrowing — an economy integrated into the global economy, which at present it is far from being. This needs efficient governance, political stability and an end to the political squabbles that keep the country in such an unsettled, distracted and divided state. It also needs an educated citizenry and workforce that has the ability to innovate and contribute to scientific and technological progress.
To sum up, Pakistan’s international relevance now depends on its domestic repositioning and the choices made at home to strengthen the economy, establish durable political stability, provide competent governance, invest in people and address its human development deficits. It also involves fashioning and implementing a coherent and imaginative foreign policy. What should be clear is that there are no shortcuts to rebooting Pakistan’s global influence.
The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.
Published in Dawn, September 16th, 2024
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